While the commitment to a trilateral agreement is diplomatically sound, some analysts remain skeptical about whether this unity can survive the intense political pressures coming from Washington. The United States has made it clear that it is willing to use aggressive tariff threats to force changes in trade policy, and there is a significant risk that Mexico may eventually be forced to prioritize its own national economic survival over regional solidarity. If the U.S. offers Mexico a favorable deal that excludes Canada, the temptation for Mexico to accept could become overwhelming.
Critics of the current strategy point out that Mexico and Canada have different economic priorities and vulnerabilities. Mexico’s manufacturing sector is heavily focused on low-cost assembly, while Canada’s economy is more closely tied to resource exports and high-value manufacturing. These divergent interests mean that a single, unified strategy may not always serve the best interests of both countries. There is a danger that by tethering their fates together, one country might be dragged into a conflict that it could have otherwise avoided through independent diplomacy.
Furthermore, the reliance on trilateralism assumes that the U.S. will continue to respect the existing framework. If the U.S. administration decides to bypass the current agreement entirely, the diplomatic efforts of Canada and Mexico may prove insufficient to prevent significant economic damage. Relying solely on a collective approach might leave both nations unprepared for a scenario where the U.S. chooses to act unilaterally, regardless of the protests from its neighbors.